What does the yield curve say?
The 10-year bond against the 3-month bill, in the euro area.
October 2026: 0.98 points.
Below zero, the curve is inverted.
It is a historical signal, not a forecast.
It has failed, and given false alarms.
It is not a recommendation.
Your browser downloads it from the ECB. It never goes through Horalis.
The data, month by month
| Month | Gap (points) |
|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 0.98 |
| 2026-09 | 0.98 |
| 2026-08 | 0.86 |
| 2026-07 | 0.82 |
| 2026-06 | 0.77 |
| 2026-05 | 0.95 |
| 2026-04 | 0.92 |
| 2026-03 | 0.94 |
| 2026-02 | 0.86 |
| 2026-01 | 0.94 |
| 2025-12 | 0.96 |
| 2025-11 | 0.84 |
| 2025-10 | 0.8 |
| 2025-09 | 0.85 |
| 2025-08 | 0.88 |
| 2025-07 | 0.88 |
| 2025-06 | 0.78 |
| 2025-05 | 0.74 |
| 2025-04 | 0.59 |
| 2025-03 | 0.59 |
| 2025-02 | 0.17 |
| 2025-01 | 0.02 |
| 2024-12 | −0.34 |
| 2024-11 | −0.42 |
| 2024-10 | −0.63 |
| 2024-09 | −0.98 |
| 2024-08 | −0.97 |
| 2024-07 | −0.91 |
| 2024-06 | −0.97 |
| 2024-05 | −1.09 |
| 2024-04 | −1.21 |
| 2024-03 | −1.39 |
| 2024-02 | −1.42 |
| 2024-01 | −1.57 |
| 2023-12 | −1.56 |
| 2023-11 | −1.09 |
| 2023-10 | −0.85 |
| 2023-09 | −0.81 |
| 2023-08 | −0.82 |
| 2023-07 | −0.9 |
| 2023-06 | −0.79 |
| 2023-05 | −0.55 |
| 2023-04 | −0.39 |
| 2023-03 | −0.26 |
| 2023-02 | −0.03 |
| 2023-01 | 0.13 |
| 2022-12 | 0.56 |
| 2022-11 | 0.88 |
| 2022-10 | 1.48 |
| 2022-09 | 1.51 |
| 2022-08 | 1.19 |
| 2022-07 | 1.44 |
| 2022-06 | 1.99 |
| 2022-05 | 1.55 |
| 2022-04 | 1.48 |
| 2022-03 | 1.08 |
| 2022-02 | 0.94 |
| 2022-01 | 0.62 |
| 2021-12 | 0.49 |
| 2021-11 | 0.6 |
| 2021-10 | 0.59 |
| 2021-09 | 0.39 |
| 2021-08 | 0.2 |
| 2021-07 | 0.31 |
| 2021-06 | 0.45 |
| 2021-05 | 0.49 |
| 2021-04 | 0.39 |
| 2021-03 | 0.31 |
| 2021-02 | 0.24 |
| 2021-01 | 0.09 |
| 2020-12 | 0.18 |
| 2020-11 | 0.15 |
| 2020-10 | 0.13 |
| 2020-09 | 0.14 |
| 2020-08 | 0.14 |
| 2020-07 | 0.15 |
| 2020-06 | 0.21 |
| 2020-05 | 0.16 |
| 2020-04 | 0.24 |
| 2020-03 | 0.26 |
| 2020-02 | 0.23 |
| 2020-01 | 0.35 |
| 2019-12 | 0.45 |
| 2019-11 | 0.34 |
| 2019-10 | 0.25 |
| 2019-09 | 0.19 |
| 2019-08 | 0.16 |
| 2019-07 | 0.34 |
| 2019-06 | 0.37 |
| 2019-05 | 0.55 |
| 2019-04 | 0.62 |
| 2019-03 | 0.67 |
| 2019-02 | 0.73 |
| 2019-01 | 0.85 |
| 2018-12 | 1.06 |
| 2018-11 | 1.14 |
| 2018-10 | 1.21 |
| 2018-09 | 1.09 |
| 2018-08 | 1.01 |
| 2018-07 | 1.02 |
| 2018-06 | 1.09 |
| 2018-05 | 1.2 |
| 2018-04 | 1.25 |
| 2018-03 | 1.32 |
| 2018-02 | 1.41 |
| 2018-01 | 1.24 |
| 2017-12 | 1.25 |
| 2017-11 | 1.21 |
| 2017-10 | 1.25 |
| 2017-09 | 1.21 |
| 2017-08 | 1.17 |
| 2017-07 | 1.27 |
| 2017-06 | 1.08 |
| 2017-05 | 1.18 |
| 2017-04 | 1.11 |
| 2017-03 | 1.29 |
| 2017-02 | 1.16 |
| 2017-01 | 1.12 |
| 2016-12 | 1.19 |
| 2016-11 | 1.05 |
| 2016-10 | 0.8 |
| 2016-09 | 0.59 |
| 2016-08 | 0.53 |
| 2016-07 | 0.56 |
| 2016-06 | 0.63 |
| 2016-05 | 0.77 |
| 2016-04 | 0.8 |
| 2016-03 | 0.8 |
| 2016-02 | 0.81 |
| 2016-01 | 1.07 |
| 2015-12 | 1.1 |
| 2015-11 | 1.03 |
| 2015-10 | 0.97 |
| 2015-09 | 1.04 |
| 2015-08 | 1 |
| 2015-07 | 1.14 |
| 2015-06 | 1.21 |
| 2015-05 | 0.95 |
| 2015-04 | 0.49 |
| 2015-03 | 0.51 |
| 2015-02 | 0.59 |
| 2015-01 | 0.59 |
| 2014-12 | 0.77 |
| 2014-11 | 0.93 |
| 2014-10 | 1.03 |
| 2014-09 | 1.15 |
| 2014-08 | 1.14 |
| 2014-07 | 1.31 |
| 2014-06 | 1.48 |
| 2014-05 | 1.5 |
| 2014-04 | 1.62 |
| 2014-03 | 1.67 |
| 2014-02 | 1.79 |
| 2014-01 | 1.97 |
| 2013-12 | 2.01 |
| 2013-11 | 1.94 |
| 2013-10 | 2.05 |
| 2013-09 | 2.18 |
| 2013-08 | 2.06 |
| 2013-07 | 1.93 |
| 2013-06 | 1.94 |
| 2013-05 | 1.67 |
| 2013-04 | 1.6 |
| 2013-03 | 1.78 |
| 2013-02 | 1.95 |
| 2013-01 | 1.88 |
| 2012-12 | 1.72 |
| 2012-11 | 1.83 |
| 2012-10 | 1.96 |
| 2012-09 | 2.01 |
| 2012-08 | 1.89 |
| 2012-07 | 1.93 |
| 2012-06 | 2.08 |
| 2012-05 | 2.17 |
| 2012-04 | 2.5 |
| 2012-03 | 2.56 |
| 2012-02 | 2.51 |
| 2012-01 | 2.63 |
| 2011-12 | 2.71 |
| 2011-11 | 2.57 |
| 2011-10 | 2.36 |
| 2011-09 | 2.1 |
| 2011-08 | 2.09 |
| 2011-07 | 2.09 |
| 2011-06 | 2.18 |
| 2011-05 | 2.39 |
| 2011-04 | 2.72 |
| 2011-03 | 2.75 |
| 2011-02 | 2.89 |
| 2011-01 | 2.9 |
| 2010-12 | 2.79 |
| 2010-11 | 2.22 |
| 2010-10 | 2.08 |
| 2010-09 | 2.26 |
| 2010-08 | 2.27 |
| 2010-07 | 2.57 |
| 2010-06 | 2.85 |
| 2010-05 | 2.94 |
| 2010-04 | 3.15 |
| 2010-03 | 3.2 |
| 2010-02 | 3.25 |
| 2010-01 | 3.37 |
| 2009-12 | 3.25 |
| 2009-11 | 3.21 |
| 2009-10 | 3.22 |
| 2009-09 | 3.32 |
| 2009-08 | 3.28 |
| 2009-07 | 3.42 |
| 2009-06 | 3.35 |
| 2009-05 | 3.22 |
| 2009-04 | 3.05 |
| 2009-03 | 2.99 |
| 2009-02 | 2.88 |
| 2009-01 | 2.4 |
| 2008-12 | 1.79 |
| 2008-11 | 1.76 |
| 2008-10 | 1.06 |
| 2008-09 | 0.17 |
| 2008-08 | 0.12 |
| 2008-07 | 0.42 |
| 2008-06 | 0.59 |
| 2008-05 | 0.49 |
| 2008-04 | 0.35 |
| 2008-03 | 0.17 |
| 2008-02 | 0.24 |
| 2008-01 | 0.31 |
| 2007-12 | 0.49 |
| 2007-11 | 0.31 |
| 2007-10 | 0.5 |
| 2007-09 | 0.41 |
| 2007-08 | 0.37 |
| 2007-07 | 0.54 |
| 2007-06 | 0.64 |
| 2007-05 | 0.43 |
| 2007-04 | 0.38 |
| 2007-03 | 0.26 |
| 2007-02 | 0.44 |
| 2007-01 | 0.48 |
| 2006-12 | 0.34 |
| 2006-11 | 0.38 |
| 2006-10 | 0.53 |
| 2006-09 | 0.62 |
| 2006-08 | 0.88 |
| 2006-07 | 1.14 |
| 2006-06 | 1.23 |
| 2006-05 | 1.32 |
| 2006-04 | 1.35 |
| 2006-03 | 1.1 |
| 2006-02 | 1.03 |
| 2006-01 | 0.96 |
| 2005-12 | 1.03 |
| 2005-11 | 1.26 |
| 2005-10 | 1.21 |
| 2005-09 | 1.08 |
| 2005-08 | 1.21 |
| 2005-07 | 1.22 |
| 2005-06 | 1.21 |
| 2005-05 | 1.38 |
| 2005-04 | 1.51 |
| 2005-03 | 1.68 |
| 2005-02 | 1.52 |
| 2005-01 | 1.54 |
| 2004-12 | 1.58 |
| 2004-11 | 1.79 |
| 2004-10 | 1.94 |
| 2004-09 | 2.06 |
Source: ECB statistics, euro area AAA yield curve. Horalis works out the monthly average. Recessions: the CEPR-EABCN dating committee. Downloaded on 2026-10-16.