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7:["$","$1","c",{"children":[["$","$Lc",null,{"children":[["$","header",null,{"className":"mb-6 space-y-1","children":[["$","h1",null,{"className":"text-3xl font-extrabold tracking-tight sm:text-4xl ","children":"How it works"}],["$","p",null,{"className":"text-muted","children":"What Horalis Growth does with your numbers, what it assumes, and where every figure comes from."}],"$undefined"]}],["$","div",null,{"className":"max-w-2xl space-y-8","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"max-w-2xl space-y-8","children":[["$","section","The answer first",{"id":"$undefined","className":"scroll-mt-24 space-y-2","children":[["$","h2",null,{"className":"text-lg font-bold","children":"The answer first"}],[["$","p","My money starts with the form. The result opens with the answer: what you could have, what it grows by and what it gives you a month.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"My money starts with the form. The result opens with the answer: what you could have, what it grows by and what it gives you a month.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","“Today, from what you have” uses the rate in “What it can pay you”, on today's money, with no years.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"“Today, from what you have” uses the rate in “What it can pay you”, on today's money, with no years.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","Then the years as a table, and the related questions: the worst, typical and best period of the past, and “What if…?”.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"Then the years as a table, and the related questions: the worst, typical and best period of the past, and “What if…?”.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]]]}],["$","section","Your money grows",{"id":"$undefined","className":"scroll-mt-24 space-y-2","children":[["$","h2",null,{"className":"text-lg font-bold","children":"Your money grows"}],[["$","p","You start with an amount and add some every month. Each year the money grows by a percentage, and that growth grows too.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"You start with an amount and add some every month. Each year the money grows by a percentage, and that growth grows too.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","All amounts are in today's money, in the currency you choose. Prices rise over time, so the growth shown is growth after rising prices.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"All amounts are in today's money, in the currency you choose. Prices rise over time, so the growth shown is growth after rising prices.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","Each monthly amount goes in at the end of its month, and it rises with prices.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"Each monthly amount goes in at the end of its month, and it rises with prices.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]]]}],["$","section","How much it grows",{"id":"$undefined","className":"scroll-mt-24 space-y-2","children":[["$","h2",null,{"className":"text-lg font-bold","children":"How much it grows"}],[["$","p","Nothing is chosen for you: tap an example or type your own growth a year, after rising prices.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"Nothing is chosen for you: tap an example or type your own growth a year, after rising prices.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","Each example shows its worst year in the data beside its growth: the two always go together.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"Each example shows its worst year in the data beside its growth: the two always go together.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","An example uses its own past years. Any other number moves up and down like the S&P 500.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":"$Le"}],"$Lf","$L10","$L11","$L12","$L13","$L14","$L15","$L16","$L17"]]}],"$L18","$L19","$L1a","$L1b","$L1c","$L1d","$L1e"]}],"$L1f","$L20"]}]]}],["$L21","$L22"],"$L23"]}]
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e:["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"An example uses its own past years. Any other number moves up and down like the S&P 500.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]
f:["$","p","For reference, world stocks grew 5.2% a year from 1900 to 2024 (UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2025). Type 5 and the page names it.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"For reference, world stocks grew 5.2% a year from 1900 to 2024 (UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2025). Type 5 and the page names it.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]
10:["$","p","Beside the result: your amounts in the past as it happened, started in every year of the data. You see the worst, the typical and the best period.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"Beside the result: your amounts in the past as it happened, started in every year of the data. You see the worst, the typical and the best period.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]
11:["$","p","The years start at 20: every example has 16 or more such runs in its data. Change them to your plan's.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"The years start at 20: every example has 16 or more such runs in its data. Change them to your plan's.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]
12:["$","p","Each choice grows at its average from past years. All use the same years, 1988–2022, so none looks better for starting in a good decade.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"Each choice grows at its average from past years. All use the same years, 1988–2022, so none looks better for starting in a good decade.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]
13:["$","p","Stocks go up and down. So Horalis Growth works out 1,000 possible futures, each shuffling past years.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"Stocks go up and down. So Horalis Growth works out 1,000 possible futures, each shuffling past years.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]
14:["$","p","“If it goes badly” is where 1 in 10 of those futures end below. “If it goes well” is where 1 in 10 end above.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"“If it goes badly” is where 1 in 10 of those futures end below. “If it goes well” is where 1 in 10 end above.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]
15:["$","p","“First 10 years like 2000–2009” replays that decade as it happened, then grows at the average. Bonds and gold did well then, so they take their worst ten years.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"“First 10 years like 2000–2009” replays that decade as it happened, then grows at the average. Bonds and gold did well then, so they take their worst ten years.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]
16:["$","p","A mix grows like its parts, by weight. A savings account earns its interest, minus rising prices. Your own numbers can replace any of these.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"A mix grows like its parts, by weight. A savings account earns its interest, minus rising prices. Your own numbers can replace any of these.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]
17:["$","p","Only kinds of assets with a long public history are shown: the S&P 500 (US stocks), German government bonds, gold and savings. Never a single company or fund.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"Only kinds of assets with a long public history are shown: the S&P 500 (US stocks), German government bonds, gold and savings. Never a single company or fund.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]
18:["$","section","What it can pay you",{"id":"$undefined","className":"scroll-mt-24 space-y-2","children":[["$","h2",null,{"className":"text-lg font-bold","children":"What it can pay you"}],[["$","p","Each month you could take out part of your money: your money × the rate ÷ 12.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"Each month you could take out part of your money: your money × the rate ÷ 12.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","The rate starts at the most that lasted 30 years from every start in the investment's past, the worst included (Bengen, 1994). Few starts in the data make it a rough guide, and the page says so. The past is not a promise.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"The rate starts at the most that lasted 30 years from every start in the investment's past, the worst included (Bengen, 1994). Few starts in the data make it a rough guide, and the page says so. The past is not a promise.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","Why 30 years: a long retirement, as in Bengen (1994) and the Trinity study (1998).",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"Why 30 years: a long retirement, as in Bengen (1994) and the Trinity study (1998).","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","Your own growth has no history, so the rate is yours. The page shows what a fall like the worst year of the most similar asset would do at the start.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"Your own growth has no history, so the rate is yours. The page shows what a fall like the worst year of the most similar asset would do at the start.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","The slider goes from 2% to 7%, plus the data's rate.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"The slider goes from 2% to 7%, plus the data's rate.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","“It lasted 30 years” says in how many of 100 possible futures that amount lasted 30 years.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"“It lasted 30 years” says in how many of 100 possible futures that amount lasted 30 years.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","Prudent: in 90 or more. Risky: in 75 or more. Very risky: in fewer.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"Prudent: in 90 or more. Risky: in 75 or more. Very risky: in fewer.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]]]}]
19:["$","section","Your goals",{"id":"$undefined","className":"scroll-mt-24 space-y-2","children":[["$","h2",null,{"className":"text-lg font-bold","children":"Your goals"}],[["$","p","Under the result, My goals: only the ones you add. Each says when your plan gets there.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"Under the result, My goals: only the ones you add. Each says when your plan gets there.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","You give the price of what you want. The grey example only shows the kind of figure.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"You give the price of what you want. The grey example only shows the kind of figure.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","Living in a country uses what an average person there lives on (see Countries). Living without working uses your own monthly costs, or a country's as a start.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"Living in a country uses what an average person there lives on (see Countries). Living without working uses your own monthly costs, or a country's as a start.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","Nothing is taken from your money: each goal is worked out on its own.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"Nothing is taken from your money: each goal is worked out on its own.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]]]}]
1a:["$","section","Check your plan",{"id":"check","className":"scroll-mt-24 space-y-2","children":[["$","h2",null,{"className":"text-lg font-bold","children":"Check your plan"}],[["$","p","Under the result, up to three observations, only when they apply. Each has its amounts. They say what is, never what to do.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"Under the result, up to three observations, only when they apply. Each has its amounts. They say what is, never what to do.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","Few years: your plan's years, or a goal, under 5 years away, and money that goes up and down. It counts how many of the 1,000 possible futures end below what you put in by then. It shows from 1 in 10. [The method](research:wealth-lens/chequeo.md#horizonte-frente-a-riesgo).",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"Few years: your plan's years, or a goal, under 5 years away, and money that goes up and down. It counts how many of the 1,000 possible futures end below what you put in by then. It shows from 1 in 10. [The method](research:wealth-lens/chequeo.md#horizonte-frente-a-riesgo).","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","Savings for 10 years or more: what the account keeps in today's money, against what you put in. And against the S&P 500, with the same amounts: what it gives up, and their worst fall. That fall comes from yearly data: within a year it may have been deeper. [The method](research:wealth-lens/chequeo.md#ahorro-a-largo-plazo).",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"Savings for 10 years or more: what the account keeps in today's money, against what you put in. And against the S&P 500, with the same amounts: what it gives up, and their worst fall. That fall comes from yearly data: within a year it may have been deeper. [The method](research:wealth-lens/chequeo.md#ahorro-a-largo-plazo).","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]]]}]
1b:["$","section","Countries",{"id":"$undefined","className":"scroll-mt-24 space-y-2","children":[["$","h2",null,{"className":"text-lg font-bold","children":"Countries"}],[["$","p","The table has 122 countries: those the World Bank's official data can price. No figure is invented for the others.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"The table has 122 countries: those the World Bank's official data can price. No figure is invented for the others.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","Each cost is what an average person there lives on a month, housing included. It comes from the household survey mean (2010–2025, each country its latest).",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"Each cost is what an average person there lives on a month, housing included. It comes from the household survey mean (2010–2025, each country its latest).","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","That mean is brought to 2024 prices with the World Bank's price levels.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"That mean is brought to 2024 prices with the World Bank's price levels.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","It is a national average: cities differ a lot. Some countries measure spending, others income, and a mean is pulled up by those who have most.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"It is a national average: cities differ a lot. Some countries measure spending, others income, and a mean is pulled up by those who have most.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","✓ and a year mean what your money pays each month covers it from that year on. Otherwise the table says when your plan gets there. [The method](research:wealth-lens/coste-de-vida.md).",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"✓ and a year mean what your money pays each month covers it from that year on. Otherwise the table says when your plan gets there. [The method](research:wealth-lens/coste-de-vida.md).","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]]]}]
1c:["$","section","Rising prices in each country",{"id":"$undefined","className":"scroll-mt-24 space-y-2","children":[["$","h2",null,{"className":"text-lg font-bold","children":"Rising prices in each country"}],[["$","p","Each country has a yearly rise in prices for the long run: the goal its central bank publishes, checked in September 2026.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"Each country has a yearly rise in prices for the long run: the goal its central bank publishes, checked in September 2026.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","Euro countries use the European Central Bank's 2%. Where there is no goal, it is about the 2015–2024 average.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"Euro countries use the European Central Bank's 2%. Where there is no goal, it is about the 2015–2024 average.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","In Angola, Burundi, Ethiopia, Ghana, Haiti, Iran, Liberia, Malawi, Nigeria, Pakistan, São Tomé & Príncipe, Sierra Leone, Türkiye, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, and Zambia, prices rose 10% a year or more in 2015–2024. Where a goal exists, the goal is still used.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"In Angola, Burundi, Ethiopia, Ghana, Haiti, Iran, Liberia, Malawi, Nigeria, Pakistan, São Tomé & Príncipe, Sierra Leone, Türkiye, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, and Zambia, prices rose 10% a year or more in 2015–2024. Where a goal exists, the goal is still used.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]]]}]
1d:["$","section","Test my plan",{"id":"$undefined","className":"scroll-mt-24 space-y-2","children":[["$","h2",null,{"className":"text-lg font-bold","children":"Test my plan"}],[["$","p","Your plan goes through past years in the order they happened, with no replay. Figures are for whole calendar years.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"Your plan goes through past years in the order they happened, with no replay. Figures are for whole calendar years.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","Each crash starts the year before it. The fall is what the crash did to the money you had at the top.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"Each crash starts the year before it. The fall is what the crash did to the money you had at the top.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","A fall that came back within one year does not show in yearly figures. Covid in 2020 is one of them.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"A fall that came back within one year does not show in yearly figures. Covid in 2020 is one of them.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]]]}]
1e:["$","section","What it does not do",{"id":"$undefined","className":"scroll-mt-24 space-y-2","children":[["$","h2",null,{"className":"text-lg font-bold","children":"What it does not do"}],[["$","p","It gives no advice and makes no forecast. It leaves out taxes and most fees.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"It gives no advice and makes no forecast. It leaves out taxes and most fees.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","It downloads nothing while you use it: every figure is part of the page, with its source and year.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"It downloads nothing while you use it: every figure is part of the page, with its source and year.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}],["$","p","Amounts are in the currency you choose. Growth is each investment's own, after rising prices: changes between currencies are not counted.",{"className":"leading-relaxed","children":["$","$Ld",null,{"text":"Amounts are in the currency you choose. Growth is each investment's own, after rising prices: changes between currencies are not counted.","strongClassName":"font-semibold"}]}]]]}]
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